Friday, May 6, 2011

Prediction Markets in the World Ending

I loved this quote from the Post story about the nuts who think the world is ending May 21. (Wasn't it supposed to be 2012?)

Another man was so perturbed by the May 21 message that he brought over a woman he found on the street who needed money. He asked whether the Camping followers would give her some cash, because there was no need for them to keep money with the world ending. They did not.
If you want me to take your doomsday prediction seriously, you should be willing to put money behind it.

I'm reminded of GMU professor Alex Tabbarok's paper about Pascal's wager, which boils down to there being a small-but-nonzero chance that your getting into heaven depends on giving all of your money to Tabbarok, which, he argues, you should do just in case.


Late-night reader said...

Good to see you blogging again!